The 2025 UCAS end-of-cycle data tells a story that is more complex than simple growth or decline. Total acceptances are up, but underneath that headline sits a sector shaped by demographic change, cost pressures, shifting subject preferences and more empowered applicant behaviour.
With 577,725 acceptances at the end of the 2025 cycle – a 2.3% increase year on year – higher education has shown resilience in a challenging environment. Where that growth comes from, and what it means for institutions, matters far more than the headline number alone.
Overall demand: modest growth but unevenly distributed
Total acceptances rose from 564,940 in 2024 to 577,725 in 2025. That growth, however, is not evenly shared across applicant groups.
- UK 18-year-olds: 289,200 acceptances (+3.5%)
- UK applicants aged 21 and over: 106,120 acceptances (-3.3%)
- International applicants: 74,660 acceptances (+6.8%)
Younger UK applicants and international students are driving growth, while mature participation continues to face structural challenges.
Total acceptances have grown modestly over the past decade, with recent growth driven primarily by UK 18-year-olds and international applicants.
UK 18-year-olds: participation remains high
The proportion of UK 18-year-olds entering higher education remains strong at 36.3%, broadly stable since 2024. While participation is no longer increasing at the pace seen during the pandemic years, it remains high by historic standards.
This suggests that higher education continues to be an attractive option for school leavers, but not an unquestioned default. Perceptions of value, outcomes and affordability increasingly shape decisions.
Mature students: late decisions and long-term pressure
Applicants aged 21 and over continue to present a more complex picture. Early in the cycle, applications from this group were significantly down from the previous year. As the cycle progressed, the gap narrowed, with Clearing and direct engagement helping to recover some of the decline.
By the end of the cycle, acceptances were 3% lower than in 2024, suggesting that while demand still exists, it is increasingly delayed and harder won.
Competition between providers intensifies
One of the clearest patterns in the 2025 data is the divergence between providers.
Higher tariff providers recorded a 7.4% increase in acceptances, reaching 187,900 students, the highest level on record. This growth has been driven by a combination of stronger demand and higher offer rates, which have largely returned to pre-pandemic norms.
Medium and lower tariff providers, by contrast, show much flatter trends. While outcomes vary institution by institution, the overall picture is one of a more competitive and uneven market.
Higher tariff providers continue to see the strongest growth in acceptances, while trends for medium and lower tariff providers remain flatter.
Subjects: adapting to student and job trends
Subject-level changes in 2025 reflect longer-term shifts in student confidence and labour market signalling.
Growth is strongest in:
- Engineering and technology
- Subjects allied to medicine
- Law
- Economics and politics
Declines continue in:
- Business and management
- Computing and software engineering
- Creative arts and design
- Languages and area studies
These movements suggest a continued prioritisation of perceived employability and professional outcomes.
International recruitment: growth returns, volatility remains
International acceptances increased by 6.8% in 2025, raising the international share of all acceptances to 12.9%. While this represents a good recovery, it remains below the peak seen earlier in the decade.
China remains the largest source market, while rapid percentage growth from countries such as Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh highlights the increasingly diverse – and volatile – nature of international recruitment.
China remains the largest source of international acceptances, alongside notable growth from a number of emerging markets.
Student choice and flexibility
Firm choice remains the dominant route into higher education, but Clearing continues to play a significant role. Growth in Clearing acceptances and continued use of Decline My Place point to applicants who are more willing to reassess and change direction late in the cycle.
Course content, location and perceived fit are increasingly central to final decision-making.
Cost pressures and the rise of living at home
A record 22% of UK 18-year-olds accepted applicants now intend to live at home while studying, equivalent to 89,510 students. This proportion has risen steadily over the past decade.
The trend reflects growing cost pressures and has clear implications for accommodation demand, commuter student support and local recruitment strategies.
The proportion of UK 18-year-olds planning to live at home while studying has increased steadily, reaching its highest level to date in 2025.
What this means for universities
The 2025 cycle highlights a recruitment landscape that is more selective, more uneven and more shaped by applicant behaviour than raw demand alone. For universities, a few implications stand out:
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Specific cohorts and subjects are driving growth, while other areas require more active and responsive recruitment approaches, often later in the cycle.
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Competition is intensifying, particularly for institutions outside the higher tariff segment, where small differences in perception can have a disproportionate impact on outcomes.
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Applicants are making more deliberate choices, placing greater weight on course relevance, outcomes, affordability and overall fit – and they are more willing to change direction if those expectations are not met.
In that context, how clearly a university presents itself can directly affect recruitment outcomes. We work with universities to translate data like this into practical recruitment insight: sense-checking positioning, strengthening subject-level narratives and making sure UCAS, league table profiles, Clearing content and international messaging reflect the reality of the offer as it stands today.
If you’d like to explore what the 2025 UCAS data means for your own recruitment strategy, we’re always happy to have a conversation kim.mclellan@hunterlodge.co.uk